# The ROI Playbook

> Why half see zero. Why half see 171%.

*P01 · Module M1 — The Economic Case · The CEO AI Playbook by Stephen Forte*

Canonical: https://academy.buildclub.com/m1/p01-roi

## Thesis

Half saw zero. Half saw 171%. They measured different things.

## Key Takeaways

- Half saw zero. Half saw 171%. They measured different things.
- 56% — of CEOs see zero ROI on generative AI.
- 171% — ROI reported by agentic deployers.
- 88% — of companies see no return at all.
- One ROI metric per AI initiative — before any spend.

## Key Numbers

- **56%** — of CEOs see zero ROI on generative AI. (PwC 2026)
- **171%** — ROI reported by agentic deployers. (Microsoft Wave 1 / 2026)
- **88%** — of companies see no return at all. (Wharton AI ROI 2026)

## What to Do Monday

- One ROI metric per AI initiative — before any spend.
- No purchase order without a metric attached.
- Inventory the last 10 AI vendor pitches: agentic vs generative.
- Define one outcome KPI per AI initiative — refuse to fund the next without the prior having one.
- Reallocate AI budget toward the BCG 10-20-70 split.

## FAQ

**What is the core idea of The ROI Playbook?**

Half saw zero. Half saw 171%. They measured different things.

**What does the data say a CEO should pay attention to?**

56% of CEOs see zero ROI on generative AI. 171% ROI reported by agentic deployers.

**What should a CEO do Monday morning after reading The ROI Playbook?**

Start here: One ROI metric per AI initiative — before any spend; No purchase order without a metric attached; Inventory the last 10 AI vendor pitches: agentic vs generative.

**Where do the claims in The ROI Playbook come from?**

The playbook cites BuildClub Academy program architecture; BuildClub Academy workshop catalog; PwC 2026 AI Predictions; Microsoft Release Wave 1 / 2026.

## Sources

- BuildClub Academy program architecture
- BuildClub Academy workshop catalog
- [PwC 2026 AI Predictions](https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/artificial-intelligence/ai-predictions.html)
- [Microsoft Release Wave 1 / 2026](https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/dynamics365/release-plans/)
- [Wharton AI ROI Survey 2026](https://ai.wharton.upenn.edu/)
- [MIT NANDA](https://nanda.media.mit.edu/)
- [BCG AI at Scale 2026](https://www.bcg.com/capabilities/artificial-intelligence)
- [MIT NANDA — 95% pilot stall rate](https://nanda.media.mit.edu/)
- [SaaStr — Jason Lemkin published case study](https://www.saastr.com/)
- [Fortune — Replit AI agent deletes SaaStr database (July 2025)](https://fortune.com/2025/07/23/ai-coding-tool-replit-wiped-database-called-it-a-catastrophic-failure/)
- YPO Technology Network AI Daily Brief #16 — The Agentic ROI Collision (Mar 19, 2026)
- YPO Technology Network AI Daily Brief #5 — The AI Reckoning (Mar 6, 2026)

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